China on a Rampage

China appears to be on a rampage. A Chinese submarine sighting near Japan, Cyber attacks on Australia, angry and assertive moves against Taiwan and in the South China Sea, PLA in Hong Kong, soured relations with Canada and ongoing acrimony with the US. All these point to China becoming bolder and more impatient with the world. It does not seem to care for the world opinion. It seems confident that it has arrived and the world can do little to stop its long march to super power status.

Huge US Dollar deposits, a growing economy despite the Covid-19 pandemic, and new found confidence bordering on arrogance nay belligerence to take on the world and impatience to restore its own historic imperial boundaries in the close and distant frontiers make China even more dangerous.

What is China's long term goal? Not just to keep its neighbours on tenterhooks but quickly assume rule-making status on par with the US. It seems in South Asia. China's long term goal is not just to weaken and destabilize India but to decapitate and disarm it by cutting off its crown (head) in J&K by joining its borders through Karakoram Pass DBO with POK and secondly severing Arunachal Pradesh  and areas East of the "Chicken's neck" or Bihar-North Bengal junction.

This may sound alarmist may take years, even decades to achieve but China is not going to rest till it achieves this.China plans in decades and thinks in centuries.   

The time for appeasing a sweet talking china and playing along with its platitudes are definitely over. We must now learn to talk less and do more on all fronts.

Unless we present a united and resolute front by pushing the Chinese  PLA out of Laddakh quickly we would have lost it for ever. 

It is also time to forget our long cherished, and self-imposed  restraint. India has no option but to shed its inferiority complex and under confidence vis-a-vis China. It is time we taught the bully a lesson just as the tiny and war weary Vietnam did in 1979. Vietnam is the only small neighbour China does not mess with even today. A Vietnamese Colonel told me long ago that Vietnam fights like the deadly red ant that does not release its claws even if its lower body is broken off.    

Covid 19 notwithstanding India needs to gird its loins for the long haul and a bloody fight. It should also prepare itself for Chinese incursions in other areas like the middle and Eastern sectors. This time China is not going to stop and meekly withdraw without a fight. 

We  will have to wage this war on all fronts, in all theatres and using everything that we have; the army, navy, air power and economic and trade and even social and mainstream media resources. Incidentally India's air power assets are not insignificant  even without the Rafale so long as we do not think that air power is escalatory. We should also be prepared for China threatening us with its SRBMs of the M-9 and M-11 class and cruise missiles. Boycotting Chinese goods might not be very effective and may adversely affect our own manufacture but China also cannot afford to lose billions of dollars of trade with India. 

This time Japan, Australia, Canada, the US and many other smaller nations are not only upset but angry with China for a host of reasons and India should be able to garner world wide support in its fight back to defend its territories. Incursions, however, small these may be, must be vacated and not just status quo ante but a safe and respectable stretch of no man's land must be created. We must not allow the Chinese to continue with its age old doctrine of first presenting absurd territorial claims and then defending them by calling the other side the aggressor. 

It will not be easy. Indians will have to stop listening to the pacifist intellectual, left liberal opinion and prepare to face hardships that most young and the middle aged have never experienced. We can never match China weapon for weapon nor compete with its humongous reserve power but that does not mean we give it a walk over in Ladakh and elsewhere. We must also be prepared for Pakistan upping the ante if and when we confront China but we must warn it in no uncertain terms that this time its very existence as a nation state will be at stake if it tries to meddle in our fight with its all weather friend.     
The year 2020 is already proving to test our determination and resolve. So far we have not done too badly and God willing will do better in the coming days. But let us not fool ourselves into believing that China will relent easily. Let us not be lulled by its blow hot blow cold strategy into lowering our guard. 

Notwithstanding the usual infighting and clamour of a large and mature democracy I have no doubt we will prevail but this time we should not be satisfied with the PLA withdrawing by just a few kilometres; we have to push them back all the way to a point where it cannot repeat these games ever so often but settle the border issue once and for all. Last but not least we should not shy away from asking and taking help from our friends, both big and small. At the very least we will know if the Western world really cares for the cherished ideals of freedom and democracy. We will also find out if our NAM friends are really our friends. It is time China realised that it has lost a potential friend by its stupid and aggressive behaviour.  

Avoidable Water Wars

For decades now one state or another in India has been fighting with its neighbor over unfair or inadequate share of water from rivers that flow through more than one state as most rivers do.

Lots of figures are bandied about but few do the math!!

Water storage in storage dams is usually measured in TMC or Thousand Million Cubic Feet.

Flow of water on the other hand is measured in CUSECS or Cubic feet per second.
According to one website (https://www.quora.com/How-many-cusecs-does-1-TMC-equal)

1 TMC is roughly equal to  11,000 CUSECs for a day

1TMC is also equal to 28,316,846,592 liters. 2.83168466×10⁷cubic metres.

1 CUSEC is equal to 28.317 ltrs/second

According to a report in Indian Express of 12 September 2016 the total amount of water in all Cauvery dams was 57 TMC which on 03 October 2016 may be little less.

As per the latest order of the Supreme Court Karnataka is required to release 6,000 CUSECS of water for six days to Tamil Nadu. If released it will roughly amount to 36,000 CUSECS or about 3.2 TMC out of an estimated 57 TMC.

The Karnataka CM has further said that if it releases 6,000 CUSECS of water for drinking purposes at least 3,000 CUSECS would reach Tamil Nadu.

The problem is then not totally insurmountable, is it?
Please correct me if I am wrong in my calculations.

Need to Restore Calm 

At the outset, we need to assure and reassure ourselves that this is not the end of Indian society. We must understand that in India all religions majority to miniscule minority, are safe, secure and thriving. There is no threat or danger to any of them. See the figures, population is growing, colleges and universities proliferate, food production increases, albeit slowly, trade and economic activity goes on poverty reduces even if slowly and unevenly. India as a nation has confronted and survived vastly bigger and more dangerous challenges. It has always bounced back even if somewhat bruised and weakened. Let us not forget that most of those calamities were brought upon due to our own faults, weaknesses and internal divisions. Every time India’s leadership was perceived as weak and vacillating there was an attempt made to invade us, disrupt and subvert our internal, societal peace and stability.

What with the kind of negative inputs with which we are bombarded throughout the day we tend to lose our peace of mind and get excited, angry and annoyed. Depending on which side of the debate we are we begin thinking of ourselves as  WE and the other side, often the unknown as THEY. Most of it though is self inflicted. Let me explain. We watch TV, read others’ comments on Facebook, Twitter, newspapers because we so wish to. Nobody forces us to do it. When you talk to someone in a village (I visit one regularly) or when we ask someone working or selling her wares on the roadside we discover that she has developed a sense of inner poise. Being too busy to eke out a living she simply does not enjoy the luxury to involve herself in a sterile debate on whether there is enough freedom of expression or whether her privacy is encroached upon by this or that law or whether the economy is doing well. She sees the effect of all these things in real time. All she is hoping for is that there be no sudden heavy rain or a social disturbance or a riot that will adversely affect her day’s earnings. And, most of the time her instincts accurately guide her to take the right and correct path or option.

Public debates then are exclusively for those who have the time, money and assurance that their next meal will come whether or not they do any manual labour to earn it. This is what our self-appointed leaders of the underprivileged must always keep in mind. Don’t vitiate the atmosphere to such a degree that you unwittingly harm the very people you pretend to represent or protect. That is why a certain degree of stability, certainty and peace are absolutely essential if you want the country to progress in a way that the maximum good of the maximum number is ensured.  What would the elements inimical to India want? They would want to ensure that India survives and has enough purchasing power so that they can sell their goods (oil, computers, steel, coal etc) and make money. They do not want to destroy or raze the country to the ground. That way they will be the ultimate losers. All they want is to disrupt and subvert your pace of progress so that you are forever dependent on them and they can control you and your country, make sure that you live, behave and develop along a path that they have charted for you. Even your worst enemy does not want war if there is little to gain from it.

By continuously bickering or fighting among ourselves to somehow grab a bigger share of the national pie (that would shrink or at least grow at a glacial pace if we allow our bickering to affect national growth) or worse to score a few brownie points or improve TRPs we are willy-nilly helping the enemy. Everyday some extraneous or completely un-connected issue is raised in the media and we are invited to watch the daily dose of an ‘Evening Nautanki’ or Farce. All that is very similar to the way village people used to gather at the Chaupal to watch the song and dance by the itinerant troupe of performers that used to go from one to the other village. It was pure and simple (mostly free) entertainment for the worker, farmer or trader after the day’s hard work. Today, the only difference is that we get to watch the Nautanki in our drawing rooms or better still on our smart phones even at work. Little wonder then that the quality of our work output suffers and our relationships adversely affected.

It is a shame that the great social scientists, political analysts, security specialists or party ideologues who daily/nightly take part in these sterile debates and present  decidedly crass performances do not pause to think  and assess the damage they cause to the national morale. If we denigrate ourselves 24/7, find fault with everything that happens, curse the present or past leadership/regime or dispensation the result will be that a new Ravan, Kans, Shakuni, Robert Clive, Gazni or Ghori will appear on the scene most probably from among us and damage the existing system in a way that it would be very difficult if not impossible to rise out of the resulting morass. We will slowly but surely retreat into history, lose our freedom, and dance to the tune of a new oppressor and collectively regress.

It is vital that we learn when to call it a halt. To most of us it is clear that the current atmosphere of the so-called intolerance, mistrust, vengefulness and cynicism is a direct result of those in opposition, mainly those out of power who invent a cause to bait and provoke the ruling party/government some of whom unfortunately fall for the bait and react or worse retaliate; sometimes with disproportionate force/enthusiasm and the apparently never-ending cycle repeats itself with sickening regularity.

When the communication revolution happened some three decades ago many of us thought that it would surely speed up progress and to some extent it did. With the advent of 24/7 news channels in English and other languages one had hoped that whole society would benefit. Alas, the effect has largely been the opposite. Smart phones and social media have become a huge distraction and many if not most Apps do little more than the most mundane things like finding an eating joint in the vicinity. I am probably ignorant but I would have liked to see many more truly useful innovations and ideas that help substantially enhance our collective efficiency, comprehensive national power and help resolve our differences.

We must create a congenial atmosphere for our collective good.

The Never Ending Rafale Debate

 In recent days the Rafale deal has once again been in the news. 

First the Raksha Mantri said that he was a tough negotiator and wanted to save some money for India.(New Indian Express 05 March 16) Later it was said that France (Dassault, the manufacturer of Rafale) was demanding some Rs. 90,000 crores or 12 billion Euros for 36 aircraft whereas India was trying to bring down the price to Rs. 68,000 crores or 8 billion Euros. (NIE 10 march, 2016)

Cost/Price

Since it was shortlisted some four years ago the price of the Rafale deal  has skyrocketed not only because of the downfall of the Indian Rupee but also for some other extraneous reasons that were perhaps not quite factored in at the time. The Rupee fell from about 45-46 to US Dollar in 2007-08 to 67-68 at present and the price has jumped  from US Dollars 9 billion for 126 aircraft to more than 8-12 billion for just 26 aircraft now. This is obviously difficult to understand. Admittedly the average lay person does not know the the actual cost but what this means is that a Rafale would now cost a whopping Rs.1888.8 crores each  whereas in 2009-10 it cost just Rs. 357 crores. In US Dollar terms it would be  222 million each which is  not a small sum. This prohibitively high  price, therefore, does not make sense. 

Affordability

It is generally accepted that India would have to make a down payment of at least 15% of the negotiated price up front at the time of signing the deal which means some 1.2 billion US Dollars or Rs 8,000 crores.  The first of the 36 Rafales will then begin to arrive in India only in 2019-20. Can India really afford to make this commitment  in the present economic climate?  It is quite possible or even likely that the Su-30MKI would also cost high but since India has already been using  some 215 of these (IISS Military Balance March 2015) it would be easier to order and induct additional numbers. India can then decide whether it would  make up the numbers with LCS Tejas or any other aircraft. 

Effect

The effect of inducting just 36 Rafale fighters or two squadrons in 2019-20 may also be only marginal since the IAF would/should be able to reallocate tasks to the additional Su-30MKI fighters. It is alleged that the current serviceability of the Su-30MKI fleet is only 55% and that its maintenance problematic due mainly to India's dependence on Russian manufacturers and spare parts vendors. But this would be so in the case of any new aircraft given our total dependence on the vendor/manufacturer. This may well be true but it is also reported that HAL has in recent years begun the overhaul/servicing and even manufacture of many essential spare parts. It should, therefore, be easier to tweak/improve this system. Some commentators have said that the Mirage-2000 fleet played a crucial role during the 1999 Kargil conflict and more than proved its high costs. This is undoubtedly true but  it is also equally true that at that time the Su-30 was only just entering service and in a limited border war of the future the Su-30MKI should prove eminently worthy. It is also said that Russian technology is not as advanced as its Western counterpart but then why has India been purchasing more and more Su-30MKI fighters and also collaborating with Russia in a variety of other spheres such as missiles and submarines?    

Technology Transfer.  

It is obvious that the IAF chose the Rafale despite its high cost because it saw its induction as a major upgrade in technology. Its induction would no doubt also pave the way for further indigenous aircraft production but that would depend largely on the extent to which France/Dassault  actually allow the necessary technology transfer. If past experience is anything to go by that is not certain. Dassault has already said that it does not accept HAL as the lead technology integrator but wants Reliance, its JV partner to play that role. One wonders if this sticky point has already been resolved or not.

Life Cycle Costs. 

At the time of its selection it was said that the choice of Rafale had taken into consideration its life cycle costs. While the IAF would have done due diligence on this issue, in the absence of local licensed manufacture every spare part including consumables such as aircraft tyres, disc brake pads, filters, and numerous other items would have to be imported from France on an almost day-to-day basis. And since this would be in foreign exchange the year-on-year revenue budget will have to provide for this additional expenditure which might be considerable. In addition, this total dependence on the manufacturer will in all probability seriously affect the serviceability and availability of the Rafale fleet. The IAF would also have to procure additional/spare engines and send those due for major overhauls or repairs back to France.  A not to infrequent bird hit could cost dear both in terms of time and precious foreign exchange. This would further add to the costs.

Training 

The training of IAF aircrews would only begin once the aircraft arrives in India unless France trains the first batch of 20-24 pilots in France on French Air Force fighters. The cost of this training may have already been factored into the overall cost but would be considerable and the actual training time-consuming. Further, these aircrews would also have to be trained in the Indian environment and that would mean more time.  To be fair this would apply to any other foreign fighter as well except the Su-30MKI and the LCA Tejas.

Alternatives

Even at this late stage it should be possible to look at another fighter e.g. the JAS-39 SAAB Gripen which may not be as good as the Rafale in all its attributes and may even be only marginally cheaper but would be worthwhile if the purchase is accompanied with appropriate technology transfer. The Gripen allegedly lost out because it is powered by an American engine and hence would need US approval which at the best of times can be uncertain. Having already purchased a large number of aircraft such as the C-17, C-130 J, and now the Chinook and Apache helicopters India might find herself in a better position cross this hurdle and handle this problem in the future.   

Conclusion 

It should now be clear that procrastination over the decision to choose the right type of aircraft has cost the Indian exchequer dear and even now there is no guarantee that India would eventually get value for money if it goes ahead with this costly purchase. It is, therefore, suggested that this issue be examined de novo  even at the risk of further delay.

      

Ongoing Face-off with China

The third flag meeting has reportedly failed to resolve the stand off with China on the Depsang Plains of Ladakh simply because it was never designed to end with a flag meeting.

The Chinese have chosen the point of intrusion with great care. They know full well the greater degree of difficulty that the Indian military faces in logistically supporting troops in this area.

It is therefore reasonable to assume that the Indian Army cannot indiscriminately increase the strength of its troops should the occasion arise to surround and cut off supplies to the intruding Chinese troops. One cannot be sure but thats what it appears to be.

The central point here is that Chinese would not have knowingly entered Indian Territory if a flag meeting could persuade them to go back. There is obviously a far larger plan and the highest Chinese leadership knows it in its entirety. The Chinese want India to freeze or lower its defences on the LAC. This a firm message from the NEW CHINESE LEADERSHIP.

India's response should be to cancel the visit in whatever diplomatic language that needs to be used.

As I have always believed, India must formulate serious air power employment plans to meet such contingencies now and in the future. It is not difficult for the IAF to selectively cordon off, deny or interdict the lines of supply to these intruding troops by more or less staying on the Indian side of the LAC. This I believe will not be escalatory. There is however no hurry to do that just yet.

Simply increasing flying activity and positioning some attack aircraft at Leh will send a clear message.

Chinese Moves

We can now quite clearly understand why the Indian military needs to always remain fully equipped to meet any challenge.

The quest for clean and transparent procurement of military hardware is indeed laudable but it cannot be at the cost of military preparedness.

What will we do if we are forced into a military confrontation?

Fighting with what we have is fine but to do that successfully we must have a joint mission and a joint workable strategy that allows us instant yet calibrated retaliation.

The last time we had a ceasefire violation in January 2013 the Defence Secretary and the Army Chief briefed the PM. This time again the Army Chief has briefed Antony. Where is the Chairman COSC, ACM NAK Browne? Should he not rightfully be in the lead as the first among equals. Is it because India only thinks of a ground forces based response?

Managing Perceptions

The Chinese PLA soldiers have now been camping on Indian Territory for at least fifteen days without any signs or outward intentions of early vacation. India has rightly said that it has plans to resolve the situation and not 'accentuated' the 'localised' issue, (according to the PM).

This intrusion should not come as a surprise to any China watcher. China has done this in the past and will do it again simply because India is often perceived (perhaps mistakenly) as a power incapable of taking any firm action. Let me hasten to add that while every such transgression cannot and should not be allowed to escalate to a military confrontation it is also essential that India declares some 'red lines' to prevent the recurrance of these situations and change people's perceptions about India's ability and will to retaliate if need be.

As in the past, whenever India gives the impression of being weak, prevaricating or vacillating in her response to external pin pricks, its neighbours use the opportunity to send a political message, in this case, with Chinese characteristics!! 

China is in fact declaring her displeasure at India's belated and somewhat half-hearted yet unnecessarily publicised steps to enhance her defence posture along the LAC.

China does not want India to raise two additional infantry divisions, nor a new mountain strike corps (whatever that means), permanently station two/three Su-30MKI squadrons at forward airfields in the Northeast. China has not taken kindly to the IAF upgrading and reactivating its forward advance landing grounds (ALG) at Nayoma, Chushul, Daulat Beg Oldi and other areas.

China wants that India maintain status quo or the power differential in favour of China because any addition to troops on the Indian side would upset the current balance and enhance India's capacity for a robust military response should the need arise in the future.

China not only makes these probing moves to test India's resolve but also reiterates now and again the disputed or unsettled status of the border with India.

That this Chinese PLA intrusion is a deliberate and intentional move to send a clear political message to India just prior to the first visit of the new Chinese PM Li Keqiang is not in doubt. What the new Chinese leadership is conveying to India is that China will not relax her position on the boundary question nor will grant any concessions to India.       

More importantly, China is also telling India to not mess with her powerful neighbour and accept China's political, military and economic ascendancy and learn to live like a subsidiary power.

The only way India can change these perceptions is to show her readiness to play a more active role in international affairs and not appear disinterested and a passive onlooker to events in her immediate neighbourhood. 

The January 2013 stand off along the LoC with Pakistan following the beheading of Indian soldiers, the brutal murder of an Indian prisoner in Pakistani jail, the recent murderous attack by inmates on Sarabjit Sing another Indian prisoner languishing in Lahore's Kot Lakhpat Jail, the disdainful treatment that the Government of Maldives meted out to an Indian company and then disregarded India's requests to treat her former President with due dignity and the fiasco of the two Italian Marines facing murder charges in Indian courts all show a marked tendency on the part of India to wish away problems and do nothing. Little wonder then that no one takes India seriously! Sad but true.