Lob the Ball in Pakistan's Court

Lob the Ball in Pakistan’s Court

Every time there is a rise in tension on the borders a call goes out for an urgent reform of the Higher Defence Organisation (HDO) of the country. The recent    gruesome beheading of Indian soldiers on the LoC by Pakistan Army has once again focused attention of some defence analysts and military veterans on the CDS issue. Everyone somehow believes that the CDS will somehow correct all problems that the country’s security establishment faces.

If newspaper reports are anything to go by, the NSA and Defence Secretary briefed the PM on the events on the LoC some 48 hours after they happened clearly indicating the relative importance and seriousness of the incident. The Service Chiefs or at least the Chairman COSC could/ should have in fact briefed the PM. It was also reported that the Defence Secretary had held talks with the COAS. Two inferences may be drawn from this. First, the NSA-Defence Secretary duo operates as the de facto CDS in civilian clothes. Second, even if there was a CDS he would in all probability not have been called to the meeting.

The Government has made it amply clear that it would prefer that the civilians in the Defence and Foreign Ministries handled these awkward situations arising out of ceasefire violations or cross-border firing. The inference once again is that the Army and/or the air force is meant only to guard the borders and report any unusual event/incident to their civilian superiors and it is for this civilian arm of the Government to take whatever action that they might think fit in their wisdom. Beheading is brutal but it still does not give the army any extra authority.

Barring some violations the Ceasefire has generally held for nearly ten years and one would think that both Pakistan and India have a stake in maintaining peace on the LoC. The military, especially the army is and should also be happy if borders are generally peaceful.

Things are however not that simple. Pakistan has not so far stopped aiding and abetting infiltration into India and since infiltration points keep changing depending on weather and ground conditions, one or the other portion of the LoC becomes active and ‘encounters’ take place on an almost regular basis.

Looked at this way, the ten year long ceasefire has not been particularly useful to India except perhaps as a ‘diplomatic/CBM achievement. It is for this reason that the maintenance of ceasefire appears to be more important to India than to Pakistan. Pakistan can thus appear totally dismissive and righteous when any such incident occurs with that country giving the impression that it does not care if the ceasefire is observed or not.

While India harps on the so-called sanctity of the LoC always invoking the 1972 Simla (now Shimla) Agreement, Pakistan is loath to acknowledge that it does not care for that agreement either. In fact, Pakistan does not miss an opportunity to internationalise the Kashmir issue and invite third party mediation any time things get ugly knowing full well that India would be embarrassed as it can neither escalate the matter nor accept outside intervention.

Thus Pakistan uses and manipulates the Ceasefire, LoC or other CBMs to achieve her political and military objectives and since India has so far failed to stop cross-border infiltration it is doomed to always second-guess Pakistan’s intentions. In short, the initiative is once again with Pakistan. In any case, Pakistan is always free to rattle the nuclear sabre whenever it suits her and that is one sure way of shutting up India.

Why would Pakistan ever respect the sanctity of the LoC when that country has all along said that it wants J&K, nothing less?

It is time therefore that India devised a new and somewhat different strategy to deal with this intransigent neighbour.  

One easy way to do that would be a one line declaration that while India will try its utmost to respect the ceasefire it will not make any special attempt to respect the ‘sanctity’ of the LoC . This means that in the event of a fire fight India will not return any territory that her forces might gain. Such a change is likely to send Pakistan’s benefactors scurrying for cover for in these changed circumstances they will be forced to keep a tighter control on Pakistan, especially its army. Could an Indian CDS have achieved much?