The Obama Visit

State visits are often like grand weddings. They generate much excitement and place huge and complex demands on all participants. But as Kabir once said, after the departure of the bride and bridegroom the ‘Baraat’ becomes lifeless. In fact every one gets back to the realities of the daily humdrum. While the Obama visit was undoubtedly important and he said many useful things, translating words into action is far more difficult.

Indians know the realities of South Asian geopolitics even if we sometime forget the constraints that geography puts on us. Simply restating that ‘safe havens for terrorist organisations are unacceptable’ would not get us anywhere. For that to work both India and the US have to severely restrict the political space that the sponsors enjoy. The US is deeply involved in Afghanistan for the long haul and despite best efforts it is not easy for it extricate itself in a hurry. Obama thus has to keep many unsavoury people happy.

Now that the G-20 has become a more active and influential grouping in the much-globalised world, one wonders if membership of the UN Security Council with, but most probably, without a veto would add any real clout to a new member. As we have seen in the past, powerful countries will not wait for the nod from UNSC to take action if that is the only way they can secure their interests.

Although both Iran and Burma were mentioned, every one again knows the limits to which any country can be coerced into accepting global norms. Even after the international investigation found North Korea’s involvement in the sinking of the Cheonan, no action has been taken against the alleged culprit simply because it has the backing of a powerful neighbour. That the country concerned is also a permanent member is incidental.

The recent Sino-Japanese spat over the Senkaku islands also demonstrated the limits of Japanese and indeed American power. Now that China has clearly included the ‘Spratlys Islands’ as its ‘core interests’ it is likely that the smaller neighbours will have to sooner or later fall in line.

Outsourcing was mentioned to please his domestic audience. Surely, Obama knows full well that when a country decides to outsource its less glamorous and low-tech manufacturing to other countries such as the four Asian Tigers and later the People’s Republic of China (PRC) its economy becomes dependent on imports of cheap goods with job losses. In a similar way outsourcing services too becomes tempting because of the lower costs. This is elementary even if experts use a lot of complex jargon to say the same thing. So long as India provides efficient and reliable services at low cost, the developed world will need it. India too needs the US for its hi-tech support. This, however, need not be restricted to only the defence sector. There are many other areas such as agriculture, renewable energy, clean coal, new fuels, education, space and a whole host of doable collaboration projects that would be easier to implement. Problems with LSA and CISMOA and nuclear liability bills can then be resolved more amicably. Some analysts have questioned the need for these agreements as they see no situation in which Indian armed forces would fight alongside their American counterparts and for disaster relief operations one does not need much ‘interoperability’. The US perhaps wants to obliquely tell India that it would in the not too distant future shoulder some very major responsibilities and for that a quasi-alliance type of relationship would be necessary. How India reacts to this would be interesting.

Strengthening people to people contact by sending ever more students to the US and in turn getting Americans to work in India would be one of the priority areas and that would also make joint ventures easier. It would also be interesting to watch how India and the US handle the tricky questions of up to 50 per cent offsets in the huge defence deals that are said to be in the pipeline. Would India dilute its 26 per cent cap in defence industry? Would the US defence majors invest in India with less than 50 per cent control? These are all moot points and would take time to resolve but that should not put brakes on essential and urgent indigenisation of our defence industry.

In the hullabaloo of the visit the Naxal and Bodo killings have received little attention but internal security and prevention of terrorist infiltration are bread & butter activities to which the decision makers must now return because when all is said and done India has to fight these battles on her own.

Urgent Action Needed

As predicted, Pakistan is washing its hands off the whole affair by bluntly stating that the Mumbai attack was not planned on its soil. While there are some reports of Pakistan planning some action to prosecute those detained under cyber laws it is clear that India has not succeeded in getting Pakistan to act against the prepratators of terror strikes. In a way it is a good thing simply because India can now tell the world that it followed the so called internationally accepted norms and procedures to get to the root of the problem and now that Pakistan has not responded, India is free to take whatever action that may be necessary at the time of its choosing.
India is, of course, free to not say anything further as far as the kind, extent and scope of the action. Any layperson should know that it is time India tightened the noose around Paksitan.
First, it must immediately suspend the composite dialogue and other useless agreements such as the Joint Terror Investigation Mechanism, the various busses and trains running between the two countries and the so called people-to-people contacts. That way the one thing India can make sure is no undesirable person manages to enter India as a legitimate tourist/visitor. India should then suspend all the trade links with Pakistan. It should also declare that any attempt by Pakistan based entities to infiltrate India's international border or the LOC will be met with strong retaliatory action and that Pakistan would be responsible for any consequences. India should also tell the US that it must immediately stop the sale/transfer of sophisticated weapons such as the AMRAAM, JDAM and AAM missiles and F-16 fighters to Pakistan as these are not required to fight the Taliban and Al-Qaeda along Pakistan's western border but are in fact meant to boost Pak military's strength to stave off any military pressure from India. India could also very carefully calibrate its response in terms of sending troops to Afghanistan to protest the thousands of Indians working there to rebuild that war ravaged country. India should also increase its military to military contact with the countries of Central Asia especially Tajikistan where it already has a small contingent of air force personnel at Farkhar. It must also offer these countries training facilities by deputing Indian military instructors and troops for their modernisation. Needless to add that all these countries are also threatened by terrorism that emanates from Al Qaeda and Taliban combine and there is a huge amount of goodwill and affection for India.
Internally, there is an urgent need to take immediate action against all those elements that are presently threatening national unity such the MNS, Sri Ram Sena, SIMI operatives and above all the Maoists and the numerous insurgents in the Northeast. Unless the Central Government sends out a clear signal that it will actually not tolerate any disruptive and sepratist activity it will be difficult to defend our democratic system.

Pakistani Mindset

Having spent a long time in the Indian Air Force and with two of the country's most well known think tanks I found myself interacting with a number of Pakistani officials, civilian and military scholars and on two very vital issues this is what they always said.
When told that Pakistani adventurism affects the well being of Indian Muslims they said they did not think the fate of Indian Muslims was their concern. In fact they have little love for them. Some of them blamed the Indian Muslims for not going over to Pakistan.
When told that India's patience was running out expecially after they stabbed us in the back at Kargil after the now famous and land mark visit of the then Indian PM AB Vajpayee who also made it a point to visit the Minar-e-Pakistan implicitly offering India's good wishes to that country, the response was that Pakistan may go down but it will drag India down with it. Such is the pathalogical hatred for India among the elite intellectuals of Pakistan. So can we expect them to hand over Masood Azar or Dawood Ibrahim or any other terrorist easily?

What Now?

There is much anger and talk of action against Pakistan. At the sametime our leadership is trying to tell the world that India is not planning any military action against Pakistan. What then can we do?
First: Shut the gates. I know that people-to-people contacts are good but this is not the time for such confidence building measures. India cannot afford to allow even a single criminal or terrorist or their sympathisers to slip into Indian teritory through the bus or train route. Every intelligence and police agency knows that it is impossible to ensure 100 per cent success in surveillance. So the answer is to simply suspend the contact for a while. Also increase surveillance on the land, sea and air space so that the terrorists cannot intrude or infiltrate by cutting the border fence while the Pakistani Rangers provide them covering fire from their post right across the border and violate the cease-fire as they have done 33times this year.
Second: If the US, UK and other Western powers really wish to assist India thay must first weaken and isolate the Pakistani Army and the ISI. To do this, these powers must immediately suspend their military assistance and contact with the Paksitani Army. Do not give them the promised 18 F-16 fighters and spares for the other 34 that theyalready have. Do not give them the surveillance planes that Sweden'sSaab Ericson is selling them. Pressurise China to at least temporarily suspend military aid to Pakistan. Instead of giving Pakistan billions of dollars in economic aid give them food and grain like India received under the PL-480 programme but not cash because the ISI will use such financial assistance to train more jehadi terrorists.
Third: India must tell all its friends that unless thay bring tangible eeconomic, political and diplomatic pressure on Paksitan by literally ostracizing it from the international community India will have to reconsider its ties with them. Also tell Bangladesh that unless it pays heed to India's repeated requests to close terrorist and separatist camps in that country India would be compelled to close down normal trade which would mean that Bangladesh will not even get protein and other food supplies from India and its access to Nepal would be severely restricted.
Fourth: China does not have diplomatic contact with any country unless that country first accepts Taiwan as an integral part of China. It is time India told the world that unless they deal sternly with Pakistan India's support to them cannot be taken for granted. Countries likeDubai and Saudi Arabia where many dangerous criminals enjoy sanctuary must also be told that if they do not desist from playing this double game India will have to recall all its workers even if it means a major loss in foreign remittances. Surely, a resurgent India that can waive off huge farmer loans can absorb such losses and all middle class Indians would be ready to make such sacrifices if they see that the governments and politicians lead by example.
Fifth: India is going through a serious economic crisis so it can put on hold all the huge military hardware that it had planned to import. Such a suspension will, I am sure, jolt these powers out of their comlacency and force them to take India's requests seriously.
Finally, India needs to unequivocally tell the world that this time it is not business as usual. India will take concerted action wherever needed. Even if half of these steps are taken immediately, thePakistan Army will feel isolated and feel the heat of international, and especially US opprobrium without whose support it cannot sustain its bravado. India can support the international war on terrorism even without being contiguous to Afghanistan.We cannot expect the world to take notice if we do not demonstrate our resolve.

A Nagging Question!!

One question that you may help answer. If the arrested terrorist is indeed a daily wage earner from a poor family of Faridkot Pakistan, then how is he fluent in English? Could he be a Pakistani Navy Marine Commando operating under an assumed name?

Reel to Real Rang De Basanti

I salute the youth of India. The emotional outpouring of Indian youth at Mumbai, New Delhi and many other metros of the country is reminiscent of the anger and frustration of the youth of that iconic movie Rang De Basanti except that this time it is real. For once the leadership will have to take note of this anger and show some sincerity in tackling the terror threat. Our political leadership is understandably shaken to its roots. Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, Achyutanandan, Deshmukh and RR Patil have all shown their true colours by making insensitive remarks. They, the politicians, are upset because the reaction of the educated urban youth that they had tried to divide on cast, language, religion and regional issues have at last realised that the political leadership is not honest. Our leaders are used to protests of the union leaders, Gujjars, opposition parties and the farmer type of rallies on the road but never have they seen this type of unity on the streets without any political party mobilising protesters by getting busloads of them from their constituencies. This protest is not organised for garnering votes. It is an ultimatum, a wake up call to them to pay heed or face an instant popular revolution which is quite different from the AIMS students' protests or the 1990 anti Mandal agitation.
This time the youth cannot be taken for granted. It is also totally wrong to read an artificial rural-urban or India-Bharat divide in this gathering of the youth. I am sure given a chance and some mobility those in our villages would also join these young people. The fact of the matter is that the people of India have had enough. To say that this time the Mumbaikars are up in arms because the city's elite was targeted is also completely off the mark.
The terrorists tried to destroy what is dear to all of us; our history, our culture and our national symbols of dignity, quiet resolve and the special ethos of Mumbai and other cities where everyone instantly comes to the aid of his or her compatriot. They are fighting for their buddies their brothers and sisters be they Dabbawals, cops, daily commuters or ordinary citizens. If the country's political leadership fails to get the real message and treats these protests as any other rallies of the past then only God can save them. Clear messages coming today were a loud and resounding 'NO' to corruption, cowardice, dynastic politics, inaction, vote bank politics, false promises, geriatric leadership, shielding of criminals and many other ills that we are all familiar with.
I am sure that even if this sounds somewhat emotional and even dramatic there is a strong sense of real hurt in these young minds. They are hurt to the very core of their beings. The Hindus, Muslims, Parsis, Sikhs, Christens, young housewives, young mothers with babes in their arms have demonstrated their resolve to cleanse the country's political system. If you don't do it Mr Neta they will and then you may not like their methods.

Mumbai 26/11

Indian citizens are understandably angry at their leadership but not paying taxes or indulging in divisive talk will certainly not help.
What we must do is demand the sacking of all those who failed to prevent the attack starting with the Home Ministry bureaucrats, and bosses in other organisations which failed to act on the intelligence available. Maharashtra CM and his Deputy should have been sacked long ago when they refused to heed the PM's advice to take action against people advocating divisive policies, aka MNS Chief and all those who sat on the fence or tacitly supported him.