China on a Rampage

China appears to be on a rampage. A Chinese submarine sighting near Japan, Cyber attacks on Australia, angry and assertive moves against Taiwan and in the South China Sea, PLA in Hong Kong, soured relations with Canada and ongoing acrimony with the US. All these point to China becoming bolder and more impatient with the world. It does not seem to care for the world opinion. It seems confident that it has arrived and the world can do little to stop its long march to super power status.

Huge US Dollar deposits, a growing economy despite the Covid-19 pandemic, and new found confidence bordering on arrogance nay belligerence to take on the world and impatience to restore its own historic imperial boundaries in the close and distant frontiers make China even more dangerous.

What is China's long term goal? Not just to keep its neighbours on tenterhooks but quickly assume rule-making status on par with the US. It seems in South Asia. China's long term goal is not just to weaken and destabilize India but to decapitate and disarm it by cutting off its crown (head) in J&K by joining its borders through Karakoram Pass DBO with POK and secondly severing Arunachal Pradesh  and areas East of the "Chicken's neck" or Bihar-North Bengal junction.

This may sound alarmist may take years, even decades to achieve but China is not going to rest till it achieves this.China plans in decades and thinks in centuries.   

The time for appeasing a sweet talking china and playing along with its platitudes are definitely over. We must now learn to talk less and do more on all fronts.

Unless we present a united and resolute front by pushing the Chinese  PLA out of Laddakh quickly we would have lost it for ever. 

It is also time to forget our long cherished, and self-imposed  restraint. India has no option but to shed its inferiority complex and under confidence vis-a-vis China. It is time we taught the bully a lesson just as the tiny and war weary Vietnam did in 1979. Vietnam is the only small neighbour China does not mess with even today. A Vietnamese Colonel told me long ago that Vietnam fights like the deadly red ant that does not release its claws even if its lower body is broken off.    

Covid 19 notwithstanding India needs to gird its loins for the long haul and a bloody fight. It should also prepare itself for Chinese incursions in other areas like the middle and Eastern sectors. This time China is not going to stop and meekly withdraw without a fight. 

We  will have to wage this war on all fronts, in all theatres and using everything that we have; the army, navy, air power and economic and trade and even social and mainstream media resources. Incidentally India's air power assets are not insignificant  even without the Rafale so long as we do not think that air power is escalatory. We should also be prepared for China threatening us with its SRBMs of the M-9 and M-11 class and cruise missiles. Boycotting Chinese goods might not be very effective and may adversely affect our own manufacture but China also cannot afford to lose billions of dollars of trade with India. 

This time Japan, Australia, Canada, the US and many other smaller nations are not only upset but angry with China for a host of reasons and India should be able to garner world wide support in its fight back to defend its territories. Incursions, however, small these may be, must be vacated and not just status quo ante but a safe and respectable stretch of no man's land must be created. We must not allow the Chinese to continue with its age old doctrine of first presenting absurd territorial claims and then defending them by calling the other side the aggressor. 

It will not be easy. Indians will have to stop listening to the pacifist intellectual, left liberal opinion and prepare to face hardships that most young and the middle aged have never experienced. We can never match China weapon for weapon nor compete with its humongous reserve power but that does not mean we give it a walk over in Ladakh and elsewhere. We must also be prepared for Pakistan upping the ante if and when we confront China but we must warn it in no uncertain terms that this time its very existence as a nation state will be at stake if it tries to meddle in our fight with its all weather friend.     
The year 2020 is already proving to test our determination and resolve. So far we have not done too badly and God willing will do better in the coming days. But let us not fool ourselves into believing that China will relent easily. Let us not be lulled by its blow hot blow cold strategy into lowering our guard. 

Notwithstanding the usual infighting and clamour of a large and mature democracy I have no doubt we will prevail but this time we should not be satisfied with the PLA withdrawing by just a few kilometres; we have to push them back all the way to a point where it cannot repeat these games ever so often but settle the border issue once and for all. Last but not least we should not shy away from asking and taking help from our friends, both big and small. At the very least we will know if the Western world really cares for the cherished ideals of freedom and democracy. We will also find out if our NAM friends are really our friends. It is time China realised that it has lost a potential friend by its stupid and aggressive behaviour.  

Avoidable Water Wars

For decades now one state or another in India has been fighting with its neighbor over unfair or inadequate share of water from rivers that flow through more than one state as most rivers do.

Lots of figures are bandied about but few do the math!!

Water storage in storage dams is usually measured in TMC or Thousand Million Cubic Feet.

Flow of water on the other hand is measured in CUSECS or Cubic feet per second.
According to one website (https://www.quora.com/How-many-cusecs-does-1-TMC-equal)

1 TMC is roughly equal to  11,000 CUSECs for a day

1TMC is also equal to 28,316,846,592 liters. 2.83168466×10⁷cubic metres.

1 CUSEC is equal to 28.317 ltrs/second

According to a report in Indian Express of 12 September 2016 the total amount of water in all Cauvery dams was 57 TMC which on 03 October 2016 may be little less.

As per the latest order of the Supreme Court Karnataka is required to release 6,000 CUSECS of water for six days to Tamil Nadu. If released it will roughly amount to 36,000 CUSECS or about 3.2 TMC out of an estimated 57 TMC.

The Karnataka CM has further said that if it releases 6,000 CUSECS of water for drinking purposes at least 3,000 CUSECS would reach Tamil Nadu.

The problem is then not totally insurmountable, is it?
Please correct me if I am wrong in my calculations.

Need to Restore Calm 

At the outset, we need to assure and reassure ourselves that this is not the end of Indian society. We must understand that in India all religions majority to miniscule minority, are safe, secure and thriving. There is no threat or danger to any of them. See the figures, population is growing, colleges and universities proliferate, food production increases, albeit slowly, trade and economic activity goes on poverty reduces even if slowly and unevenly. India as a nation has confronted and survived vastly bigger and more dangerous challenges. It has always bounced back even if somewhat bruised and weakened. Let us not forget that most of those calamities were brought upon due to our own faults, weaknesses and internal divisions. Every time India’s leadership was perceived as weak and vacillating there was an attempt made to invade us, disrupt and subvert our internal, societal peace and stability.

What with the kind of negative inputs with which we are bombarded throughout the day we tend to lose our peace of mind and get excited, angry and annoyed. Depending on which side of the debate we are we begin thinking of ourselves as  WE and the other side, often the unknown as THEY. Most of it though is self inflicted. Let me explain. We watch TV, read others’ comments on Facebook, Twitter, newspapers because we so wish to. Nobody forces us to do it. When you talk to someone in a village (I visit one regularly) or when we ask someone working or selling her wares on the roadside we discover that she has developed a sense of inner poise. Being too busy to eke out a living she simply does not enjoy the luxury to involve herself in a sterile debate on whether there is enough freedom of expression or whether her privacy is encroached upon by this or that law or whether the economy is doing well. She sees the effect of all these things in real time. All she is hoping for is that there be no sudden heavy rain or a social disturbance or a riot that will adversely affect her day’s earnings. And, most of the time her instincts accurately guide her to take the right and correct path or option.

Public debates then are exclusively for those who have the time, money and assurance that their next meal will come whether or not they do any manual labour to earn it. This is what our self-appointed leaders of the underprivileged must always keep in mind. Don’t vitiate the atmosphere to such a degree that you unwittingly harm the very people you pretend to represent or protect. That is why a certain degree of stability, certainty and peace are absolutely essential if you want the country to progress in a way that the maximum good of the maximum number is ensured.  What would the elements inimical to India want? They would want to ensure that India survives and has enough purchasing power so that they can sell their goods (oil, computers, steel, coal etc) and make money. They do not want to destroy or raze the country to the ground. That way they will be the ultimate losers. All they want is to disrupt and subvert your pace of progress so that you are forever dependent on them and they can control you and your country, make sure that you live, behave and develop along a path that they have charted for you. Even your worst enemy does not want war if there is little to gain from it.

By continuously bickering or fighting among ourselves to somehow grab a bigger share of the national pie (that would shrink or at least grow at a glacial pace if we allow our bickering to affect national growth) or worse to score a few brownie points or improve TRPs we are willy-nilly helping the enemy. Everyday some extraneous or completely un-connected issue is raised in the media and we are invited to watch the daily dose of an ‘Evening Nautanki’ or Farce. All that is very similar to the way village people used to gather at the Chaupal to watch the song and dance by the itinerant troupe of performers that used to go from one to the other village. It was pure and simple (mostly free) entertainment for the worker, farmer or trader after the day’s hard work. Today, the only difference is that we get to watch the Nautanki in our drawing rooms or better still on our smart phones even at work. Little wonder then that the quality of our work output suffers and our relationships adversely affected.

It is a shame that the great social scientists, political analysts, security specialists or party ideologues who daily/nightly take part in these sterile debates and present  decidedly crass performances do not pause to think  and assess the damage they cause to the national morale. If we denigrate ourselves 24/7, find fault with everything that happens, curse the present or past leadership/regime or dispensation the result will be that a new Ravan, Kans, Shakuni, Robert Clive, Gazni or Ghori will appear on the scene most probably from among us and damage the existing system in a way that it would be very difficult if not impossible to rise out of the resulting morass. We will slowly but surely retreat into history, lose our freedom, and dance to the tune of a new oppressor and collectively regress.

It is vital that we learn when to call it a halt. To most of us it is clear that the current atmosphere of the so-called intolerance, mistrust, vengefulness and cynicism is a direct result of those in opposition, mainly those out of power who invent a cause to bait and provoke the ruling party/government some of whom unfortunately fall for the bait and react or worse retaliate; sometimes with disproportionate force/enthusiasm and the apparently never-ending cycle repeats itself with sickening regularity.

When the communication revolution happened some three decades ago many of us thought that it would surely speed up progress and to some extent it did. With the advent of 24/7 news channels in English and other languages one had hoped that whole society would benefit. Alas, the effect has largely been the opposite. Smart phones and social media have become a huge distraction and many if not most Apps do little more than the most mundane things like finding an eating joint in the vicinity. I am probably ignorant but I would have liked to see many more truly useful innovations and ideas that help substantially enhance our collective efficiency, comprehensive national power and help resolve our differences.

We must create a congenial atmosphere for our collective good.

The Never Ending Rafale Debate

 In recent days the Rafale deal has once again been in the news. 

First the Raksha Mantri said that he was a tough negotiator and wanted to save some money for India.(New Indian Express 05 March 16) Later it was said that France (Dassault, the manufacturer of Rafale) was demanding some Rs. 90,000 crores or 12 billion Euros for 36 aircraft whereas India was trying to bring down the price to Rs. 68,000 crores or 8 billion Euros. (NIE 10 march, 2016)

Cost/Price

Since it was shortlisted some four years ago the price of the Rafale deal  has skyrocketed not only because of the downfall of the Indian Rupee but also for some other extraneous reasons that were perhaps not quite factored in at the time. The Rupee fell from about 45-46 to US Dollar in 2007-08 to 67-68 at present and the price has jumped  from US Dollars 9 billion for 126 aircraft to more than 8-12 billion for just 26 aircraft now. This is obviously difficult to understand. Admittedly the average lay person does not know the the actual cost but what this means is that a Rafale would now cost a whopping Rs.1888.8 crores each  whereas in 2009-10 it cost just Rs. 357 crores. In US Dollar terms it would be  222 million each which is  not a small sum. This prohibitively high  price, therefore, does not make sense. 

Affordability

It is generally accepted that India would have to make a down payment of at least 15% of the negotiated price up front at the time of signing the deal which means some 1.2 billion US Dollars or Rs 8,000 crores.  The first of the 36 Rafales will then begin to arrive in India only in 2019-20. Can India really afford to make this commitment  in the present economic climate?  It is quite possible or even likely that the Su-30MKI would also cost high but since India has already been using  some 215 of these (IISS Military Balance March 2015) it would be easier to order and induct additional numbers. India can then decide whether it would  make up the numbers with LCS Tejas or any other aircraft. 

Effect

The effect of inducting just 36 Rafale fighters or two squadrons in 2019-20 may also be only marginal since the IAF would/should be able to reallocate tasks to the additional Su-30MKI fighters. It is alleged that the current serviceability of the Su-30MKI fleet is only 55% and that its maintenance problematic due mainly to India's dependence on Russian manufacturers and spare parts vendors. But this would be so in the case of any new aircraft given our total dependence on the vendor/manufacturer. This may well be true but it is also reported that HAL has in recent years begun the overhaul/servicing and even manufacture of many essential spare parts. It should, therefore, be easier to tweak/improve this system. Some commentators have said that the Mirage-2000 fleet played a crucial role during the 1999 Kargil conflict and more than proved its high costs. This is undoubtedly true but  it is also equally true that at that time the Su-30 was only just entering service and in a limited border war of the future the Su-30MKI should prove eminently worthy. It is also said that Russian technology is not as advanced as its Western counterpart but then why has India been purchasing more and more Su-30MKI fighters and also collaborating with Russia in a variety of other spheres such as missiles and submarines?    

Technology Transfer.  

It is obvious that the IAF chose the Rafale despite its high cost because it saw its induction as a major upgrade in technology. Its induction would no doubt also pave the way for further indigenous aircraft production but that would depend largely on the extent to which France/Dassault  actually allow the necessary technology transfer. If past experience is anything to go by that is not certain. Dassault has already said that it does not accept HAL as the lead technology integrator but wants Reliance, its JV partner to play that role. One wonders if this sticky point has already been resolved or not.

Life Cycle Costs. 

At the time of its selection it was said that the choice of Rafale had taken into consideration its life cycle costs. While the IAF would have done due diligence on this issue, in the absence of local licensed manufacture every spare part including consumables such as aircraft tyres, disc brake pads, filters, and numerous other items would have to be imported from France on an almost day-to-day basis. And since this would be in foreign exchange the year-on-year revenue budget will have to provide for this additional expenditure which might be considerable. In addition, this total dependence on the manufacturer will in all probability seriously affect the serviceability and availability of the Rafale fleet. The IAF would also have to procure additional/spare engines and send those due for major overhauls or repairs back to France.  A not to infrequent bird hit could cost dear both in terms of time and precious foreign exchange. This would further add to the costs.

Training 

The training of IAF aircrews would only begin once the aircraft arrives in India unless France trains the first batch of 20-24 pilots in France on French Air Force fighters. The cost of this training may have already been factored into the overall cost but would be considerable and the actual training time-consuming. Further, these aircrews would also have to be trained in the Indian environment and that would mean more time.  To be fair this would apply to any other foreign fighter as well except the Su-30MKI and the LCA Tejas.

Alternatives

Even at this late stage it should be possible to look at another fighter e.g. the JAS-39 SAAB Gripen which may not be as good as the Rafale in all its attributes and may even be only marginally cheaper but would be worthwhile if the purchase is accompanied with appropriate technology transfer. The Gripen allegedly lost out because it is powered by an American engine and hence would need US approval which at the best of times can be uncertain. Having already purchased a large number of aircraft such as the C-17, C-130 J, and now the Chinook and Apache helicopters India might find herself in a better position cross this hurdle and handle this problem in the future.   

Conclusion 

It should now be clear that procrastination over the decision to choose the right type of aircraft has cost the Indian exchequer dear and even now there is no guarantee that India would eventually get value for money if it goes ahead with this costly purchase. It is, therefore, suggested that this issue be examined de novo  even at the risk of further delay.

      

Ongoing Face-off with China

The third flag meeting has reportedly failed to resolve the stand off with China on the Depsang Plains of Ladakh simply because it was never designed to end with a flag meeting.

The Chinese have chosen the point of intrusion with great care. They know full well the greater degree of difficulty that the Indian military faces in logistically supporting troops in this area.

It is therefore reasonable to assume that the Indian Army cannot indiscriminately increase the strength of its troops should the occasion arise to surround and cut off supplies to the intruding Chinese troops. One cannot be sure but thats what it appears to be.

The central point here is that Chinese would not have knowingly entered Indian Territory if a flag meeting could persuade them to go back. There is obviously a far larger plan and the highest Chinese leadership knows it in its entirety. The Chinese want India to freeze or lower its defences on the LAC. This a firm message from the NEW CHINESE LEADERSHIP.

India's response should be to cancel the visit in whatever diplomatic language that needs to be used.

As I have always believed, India must formulate serious air power employment plans to meet such contingencies now and in the future. It is not difficult for the IAF to selectively cordon off, deny or interdict the lines of supply to these intruding troops by more or less staying on the Indian side of the LAC. This I believe will not be escalatory. There is however no hurry to do that just yet.

Simply increasing flying activity and positioning some attack aircraft at Leh will send a clear message.

Chinese Moves

We can now quite clearly understand why the Indian military needs to always remain fully equipped to meet any challenge.

The quest for clean and transparent procurement of military hardware is indeed laudable but it cannot be at the cost of military preparedness.

What will we do if we are forced into a military confrontation?

Fighting with what we have is fine but to do that successfully we must have a joint mission and a joint workable strategy that allows us instant yet calibrated retaliation.

The last time we had a ceasefire violation in January 2013 the Defence Secretary and the Army Chief briefed the PM. This time again the Army Chief has briefed Antony. Where is the Chairman COSC, ACM NAK Browne? Should he not rightfully be in the lead as the first among equals. Is it because India only thinks of a ground forces based response?

Managing Perceptions

The Chinese PLA soldiers have now been camping on Indian Territory for at least fifteen days without any signs or outward intentions of early vacation. India has rightly said that it has plans to resolve the situation and not 'accentuated' the 'localised' issue, (according to the PM).

This intrusion should not come as a surprise to any China watcher. China has done this in the past and will do it again simply because India is often perceived (perhaps mistakenly) as a power incapable of taking any firm action. Let me hasten to add that while every such transgression cannot and should not be allowed to escalate to a military confrontation it is also essential that India declares some 'red lines' to prevent the recurrance of these situations and change people's perceptions about India's ability and will to retaliate if need be.

As in the past, whenever India gives the impression of being weak, prevaricating or vacillating in her response to external pin pricks, its neighbours use the opportunity to send a political message, in this case, with Chinese characteristics!! 

China is in fact declaring her displeasure at India's belated and somewhat half-hearted yet unnecessarily publicised steps to enhance her defence posture along the LAC.

China does not want India to raise two additional infantry divisions, nor a new mountain strike corps (whatever that means), permanently station two/three Su-30MKI squadrons at forward airfields in the Northeast. China has not taken kindly to the IAF upgrading and reactivating its forward advance landing grounds (ALG) at Nayoma, Chushul, Daulat Beg Oldi and other areas.

China wants that India maintain status quo or the power differential in favour of China because any addition to troops on the Indian side would upset the current balance and enhance India's capacity for a robust military response should the need arise in the future.

China not only makes these probing moves to test India's resolve but also reiterates now and again the disputed or unsettled status of the border with India.

That this Chinese PLA intrusion is a deliberate and intentional move to send a clear political message to India just prior to the first visit of the new Chinese PM Li Keqiang is not in doubt. What the new Chinese leadership is conveying to India is that China will not relax her position on the boundary question nor will grant any concessions to India.       

More importantly, China is also telling India to not mess with her powerful neighbour and accept China's political, military and economic ascendancy and learn to live like a subsidiary power.

The only way India can change these perceptions is to show her readiness to play a more active role in international affairs and not appear disinterested and a passive onlooker to events in her immediate neighbourhood. 

The January 2013 stand off along the LoC with Pakistan following the beheading of Indian soldiers, the brutal murder of an Indian prisoner in Pakistani jail, the recent murderous attack by inmates on Sarabjit Sing another Indian prisoner languishing in Lahore's Kot Lakhpat Jail, the disdainful treatment that the Government of Maldives meted out to an Indian company and then disregarded India's requests to treat her former President with due dignity and the fiasco of the two Italian Marines facing murder charges in Indian courts all show a marked tendency on the part of India to wish away problems and do nothing. Little wonder then that no one takes India seriously! Sad but true.  

Home Ministers's Accusations

By calling the BJP and RSS as training grounds for Hindu terrorists on the strength of reports that he has received has he not given out classified government information? As expected, Hafiz Saeed has used Shinde's statement to deflect India's charges back on Indians. India has never needed enemies, we have enough of our own. During the many TV debates on the recent LoC violations and the brutal beheading of an Indian Jawan not one Pakistani showed any sympathy, contrition nor remorse and strongly defended all his countrymen including the army. Mera Bharat Mahan.

Lob the Ball in Pakistan's Court

Lob the Ball in Pakistan’s Court

Every time there is a rise in tension on the borders a call goes out for an urgent reform of the Higher Defence Organisation (HDO) of the country. The recent    gruesome beheading of Indian soldiers on the LoC by Pakistan Army has once again focused attention of some defence analysts and military veterans on the CDS issue. Everyone somehow believes that the CDS will somehow correct all problems that the country’s security establishment faces.

If newspaper reports are anything to go by, the NSA and Defence Secretary briefed the PM on the events on the LoC some 48 hours after they happened clearly indicating the relative importance and seriousness of the incident. The Service Chiefs or at least the Chairman COSC could/ should have in fact briefed the PM. It was also reported that the Defence Secretary had held talks with the COAS. Two inferences may be drawn from this. First, the NSA-Defence Secretary duo operates as the de facto CDS in civilian clothes. Second, even if there was a CDS he would in all probability not have been called to the meeting.

The Government has made it amply clear that it would prefer that the civilians in the Defence and Foreign Ministries handled these awkward situations arising out of ceasefire violations or cross-border firing. The inference once again is that the Army and/or the air force is meant only to guard the borders and report any unusual event/incident to their civilian superiors and it is for this civilian arm of the Government to take whatever action that they might think fit in their wisdom. Beheading is brutal but it still does not give the army any extra authority.

Barring some violations the Ceasefire has generally held for nearly ten years and one would think that both Pakistan and India have a stake in maintaining peace on the LoC. The military, especially the army is and should also be happy if borders are generally peaceful.

Things are however not that simple. Pakistan has not so far stopped aiding and abetting infiltration into India and since infiltration points keep changing depending on weather and ground conditions, one or the other portion of the LoC becomes active and ‘encounters’ take place on an almost regular basis.

Looked at this way, the ten year long ceasefire has not been particularly useful to India except perhaps as a ‘diplomatic/CBM achievement. It is for this reason that the maintenance of ceasefire appears to be more important to India than to Pakistan. Pakistan can thus appear totally dismissive and righteous when any such incident occurs with that country giving the impression that it does not care if the ceasefire is observed or not.

While India harps on the so-called sanctity of the LoC always invoking the 1972 Simla (now Shimla) Agreement, Pakistan is loath to acknowledge that it does not care for that agreement either. In fact, Pakistan does not miss an opportunity to internationalise the Kashmir issue and invite third party mediation any time things get ugly knowing full well that India would be embarrassed as it can neither escalate the matter nor accept outside intervention.

Thus Pakistan uses and manipulates the Ceasefire, LoC or other CBMs to achieve her political and military objectives and since India has so far failed to stop cross-border infiltration it is doomed to always second-guess Pakistan’s intentions. In short, the initiative is once again with Pakistan. In any case, Pakistan is always free to rattle the nuclear sabre whenever it suits her and that is one sure way of shutting up India.

Why would Pakistan ever respect the sanctity of the LoC when that country has all along said that it wants J&K, nothing less?

It is time therefore that India devised a new and somewhat different strategy to deal with this intransigent neighbour.  

One easy way to do that would be a one line declaration that while India will try its utmost to respect the ceasefire it will not make any special attempt to respect the ‘sanctity’ of the LoC . This means that in the event of a fire fight India will not return any territory that her forces might gain. Such a change is likely to send Pakistan’s benefactors scurrying for cover for in these changed circumstances they will be forced to keep a tighter control on Pakistan, especially its army. Could an Indian CDS have achieved much?

The Aggressor Will Always Get Away

One of the biggest weaknesses of India’s security discourse is the failure of the Indian leadership to truly understand the nature and psyche of its Western neighbour. Pakistan, like any other country, does not like to lose face, is always ready to up the ante, initiate audacious and precipitous action, make noise, co-opt its benefactors especially the United States and China, demand international intervention and establish a sort of moral and psychological ascendancy and superiority over India. Once the dust settles down, it is business as usual including demands for a dialogue to resolve the core issue of Kashmir before bilateral relations can be improved. The rest is cosmetics. The Indian leadership seems to repeatedly fall prey to such ruses.
India, on the other hand, mistakenly believes that because Pakistanis talk, eat, speak and very often behave like us they are indeed like us; our long lost brothers whose wayward behaviour can only be corrected through sustained and sincere peace building as well as disproportionately large concessions because India is after all a big country which is focused on its economic development and can ill afford to be distracted by resort to arms. India is also convinced that Pakistan’s benefactors will not let that country sink beyond a point and intervene to ensure its survival. There is much truth in this assessment but history tells us a somewhat different story.
Right from the time of its birth, Pakistani leaders including Jinnah had convinced themselves that India had somehow cheated and short-changed Pakistan with British help and that is how Jinnah got a ‘moth eaten Pakistan’. Although legal, the accession of Jammu & Kashmir was also seen as another case of Indian treachery conveniently forgetting that it was brought on by Pakistani aggression and attempts to wrest control of the state by force. India committed its first blunder by prematurely taking the issue to the United Nations and compounded the folly by choosing the ‘wrong’ article/clause of the Charter, thus allowing Pakistan to become an equal party to the ‘dispute’ when in fact Pakistan was simply the aggressor and nothing more.
Thereafter, through the last 65 years, Pakistan has tried to settle the matter by resort to force whenever its leadership felt that the circumstances were propitious and favourable. A major mistake that Pakistan has always made and continues to make even today is to underestimate the resolve of India’s leadership and the capability of the Indian military. The defensive defence policy that India has followed in preference to military retaliation has unfortunately emboldened Pakistan, which continues to believe that it can always get away. Repeated attacks by Pakistan at Haji Pir, Kargil and Chhamb are examples of such aggressive behaviour.
Worse, every time Pakistan lost the battle its resolve became stronger to somehow avenge the previous defeat. The wars of 1965, 1971 and 1999 were followed by more aggressive and violent behaviour. India’s shooting down of a Pakistan Navy Atlantique, which had violated Indian air space, was followed by the hijack of Indian Airlines Flight IC-814 in December 1999 as well as various terrorist attacks including KaluChak, Delhi’s Red Fort and the Indian Parliament. India did not retaliate to any of these provocations. It must not be forgotten that in the run-up to bigger hostilities, Pakistan always began with sustained heavy shelling of border posts and towns, as in Kargil in July 1998, to gauge the Indian reaction. In all of these incidents Pakistan’s losses were minimal simply because India had consistently demonstrated self-imposed restraint but to no avail.
The recent case of cease-fire violation and Pakistani barbarity should be seen against this backdrop. Once again a pattern is discernible. Pakistan has reportedly violated the 10-year long ceasefire on many occasions but since 01 December 2012 alone the number of such violations has gone up to 22. India has repeatedly been telling the world that the Pakistan Army resorts to unprovoked firing across the Line of Control (LoC) to facilitate infiltration of terrorists but somehow refuses to take action with the result that the world at large does not believe the Indian story. If it is true that Pakistan lost a soldier (Lance Naik Aslam) in the exchange of fire in Mendhar on Saturday last, India should have expected a tit-for-tat response from Pakistan. In 1996, when a Pakistani helicopter carrying a Brigadier was allegedly shot down by India over the Siachen heights, Pakistan lost no time and shot down an Indian Mi-17.
The brutal Pakistani response came on Tuesday simply because it had to avenge the loss of Aslam. It reportedly chose Mendhar because here the border fence is well within Indian held territory and Indian army patrols move along and inside the LoC but still on the other side of the fence hence making it easier for Pakistan to mount a raid across the LoC. Foggy conditions further helped Pakistani designs but it is not understood why the so-called Area Domination Patrol was moving so close to the LoC in such poor visibility and that too in the aftermath of the Saturday incident and when the Intelligence Bureau had warned of possible Pakistani action. What sort of area domination was achieved when the Pakistani intruders in fact return unscathed?
It is also noteworthy that the Pakistan Army was not satisfied with merely killing the two Indian soldiers and injuring others in the well planned ambush but had to leave a tell-tale signature, a sign of victory, by beheading and mutilating the body/bodies of the Indian soldiers in the medieval practice of victors building a pyramid out of the heads of slain enemy soldiers right outside their tents. The main aim of the exercise was never to hide the barbarity but to explicitly tell the Indian Army to not mess with Pakistan. Why else would Pakistan have returned the mutilated bodies of the brave Lieutenant Saurabh Kalia and the six Indian soldiers during the 1999 Kargil Conflict? This is the psyche that India needs to understand. No amount of cajoling or appealing to their better sense is likely to change this characteristic of the Pakistan Army. The Pakistani message is clear; “We have done what we had to; you want to escalate, do so at your own peril. Pakistan has thrown the gauntlet, try if you have the guts”. Pakistan knows full well that there will soon be a chorus from world leaders demanding restraint and cooling of tempers from both sides. Pakistan knows it can get away unscathed. This time, however, India cannot blame the Jihadi terrorists for wanting to provoke hostilities between the neighbours because it is Pakistani regulars who have perpetrated this atrocity.
The tragedy is that many among Indian decision makers are experienced and intelligent enough to understand perfectly well the real import of such brutal and barbaric behaviour but are unable or unwilling to devise appropriate responses in the vain and forlorn hope that Pakistan will somehow mend its ways and reform itself into a ‘normal’ member of the international community.
It is time India reviewed this thinking. Instant, hard and yet calibrated military, diplomatic and political response is needed since mere warnings and protestations have proved grossly inadequate to change Pakistan’s behaviour. It is not surprising that the Indian Government spokesperson is ‘perplexed’. While India cannot afford to respond in anger it must also not make the mistake of allowing others to meddle in its affairs but, in fact, show to the world that it is perfectly capable of taking care of these pinpricks and teaching its recalcitrant neighbour(s) a hard lesson if need be. To do this, India must, however, shed its misplaced and grossly exaggerated fears of escalation into a two front war if such limited military action was initiated; in fact, the world will welcome it.
The Indian Jawan is a simple man who is trained to obey orders but his morale should not be undermined by continued inaction and India’s faith in high sounding principles of international behaviour. The constant demand to withdraw the AFSPA from parts of Jammu & Kashmir when the Indian Army is repeatedly attacked by the so-called militants is already causing the Jawan avoidable anguish. He still routinely walks into harm’s way without a moment’s hesitation simply because he has vowed to defend his sacred land. But his unquestioned obedience must never be taken for granted nor should he ever be allowed to feel defenceless against such atrocities.
It is not as if India lacks the wherewithal to safeguard its borders. Intelligence gathering mechanisms, armed and attack helicopters, Special Operation Forces, specially trained Commandos and above all plenty of electronic air and space based means are available to accurately identify and strike at the enemy in a highly calibrated response with little or no collateral damage. But for such actions to be successful India needs to first show strong resolve and equally importantly initiate without any further loss of time a truly ‘joint’ planning process that includes all arms/agencies of the state. While politicians and diplomats will do their job by informing other countries of India’s concerns and limits of patience, let the military devise ways to ensure a permanent stop to future provocations from across the borders.
It is also time India considered the use of ‘drones’ or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) fitted with suitable weapons and missiles to punish the enemy; merely possessing them will however not help. There is a chance that such declarations of red lines and open preparations for military retaliation will raise a storm of protest and criticism by India’s neighbours and other countries simply because they are not used to India taking any action but that should not be allowed to dissuade us. By constantly resorting to legal action such as exchange of dossiers of universally known international criminals, India has been sending a wrong message to the world. What India must urgently consider is a declaratory national security policy that includes as a first step the recovery of India’s lost territories to its neighbours or national reunification even if it means waging a long struggle. The absence of such an articulated aim has in fact weakened India’s case. A bold yet calm declaration of red lines is the only way India can put the onus of peace on the other side. The Indian soldier is enjoined to not only defend the country’s territorial integrity and sovereignty but more importantly its honour. We must not be found wanting in this sacred duty by neglecting the soldier’s honour.

First published on idsa.in on 10 Jan 2013

It is 4:30 on Sunday 23 December 2012, protests continue at India Gate and Jantar Mantar in Delhi. It seems this is slowly turning into India's Tiananmen moment with the students demanding that the PM make a statement and give them assurance that justice will be done. Like in the past, the ruling elite have allowed the situation to go out of control through inaction and routine unsympathetic statements and the police have further provoked the students by firing tear gas shells. Nothing would have happened if the students had been allowed to march to Vijay Chowk and stage a peaceful sit in protest. To now complain that lumpen elements are infiltrating the protest movement is stupid; the longer the government keeps mum the angrier the people will get and then violence will result. 

Significantly, no opposition leader has come out to pacify the protesters or offered advice to the government, they are simply watching the fun; such is the deep chasm between the ruling party and the opposition. What a sad day for India!! 

Gang Rape Fallout

It is a week since this horrible event occurred at Delhi but the government continues to be in denial. It took the PM six full days to give his reaction which was, " we shall take it up in the next cabinet meeting". The apathy and insensitivity of the government that supposedly works for the Aam Admi or the common man is monumental. Today the Delhi police are telling the student protesters to vacate the 'high security zone' around the India Gate and go elsewhere. How stupid can they be. Imagine telling the students who are demanding security for the Aam Admi to vacate the so called high security zone!! The fact is the government is arrogant as the Home Secretary, RK Singh, I&B Minister Manish Tiwari and Home Minister Sushil Shinde demonstrated during the much delayed press conference on Saturday at 8 PM. Not surprisingly, the GoI has once again shown its mindset by announcing a Commission of Inquiry the findings of which are usually consigned to the dustbins of history because nothing ever comes out and no executive is ever punished. In a country where the Late Lal Bahadur Shastry resigned for a railway accident, this indifference is indeed amazing or perhaps not. All through the protests against corruption the GoI has behaved exactly the same way. One thing that stands out is the absence of any steps to 'prevent' the recurrence of such heinous crimes against women.

Despite Aamir Khan highlighting the plight of the girl child on his Satyamewa Jayate series of exposes the GoI has failed to punish the culprits, doctors or to bring a strong legislation clearly confirming their negligent and arrogant attitude. The Haryana and UP Governments have done precious little to curb honour killings and punish the guilty.

No political party shows any urgency to remove criminals from politics. A newly elected Congress MP in Himachal Pradesh is reportedly absconding after rape charges were filed against him and in all probability  will soon be seen in the state legislature.

There is no fear of law. When was the last time you saw a senior police officer, IAS officer, corporater or MLA/MP on the road or in a bus? The government has clearly  abdicated its responsibility to maintain law and order by constantly declaring that it is a state subject. The fact, however, is that the ruling classes are protecting their vote banks which are not restricted only to casts and religious communities but also include Goons and local Goondas and Dons who help the politicians to garner votes, distribute largesse and seek and collect rent or bribes. Lawlessness is essential to remain in power. How can we expect the government to punish those who actively support their very existence?

While it is claimed that 30% of Delhi Police is busy providing VIP security there is really no shortage of police forces. Police reforms to free them from political interference might help a lot but it cannot change everything. The strength of Delhi Police is 83,300 which is staggering and is roughly equal to five infantry divisions or 16 to 20 brigades. Just imagine what such a force will do if deployed in Delhi. Incidentally, the whole of North-East is defended by five divisions. Food for thought!!

Government better wake up or these issues will soon become the rallying point for the next election.

If only the PM had made a statement on national media within  twenty four hours of the incident, the people would have been assured of GoI's intentions. Now it is too little too late.

 

Army's Demands

According to the TOI today, the army is back to her old tricks. This time it has once again raised the old, much debated and flogged issue of demanding helicopter and fixed wing assets from the Indian Air Force. (IAF) This is ostensibly because the IAF does not know enough about 'Close Air Support (CAS) and is not generous with allocation of sorties for this task. This is not borne out by facts. All I can say is that the army needs to learn a lesson from its history and stop raising such absurd demands.

This also makes it clear why the army is constantly asking for a CDS. It wants air power 'under command' and not 'in support'. The trouble is that air power is so much in demand that everyone wants it. With Air Superiority anything is possible; without it everything is at risk.

India is neither rich nor advanced (technologically) to be able to afford a separate air arm like the US Army or Marines.

Go back to the basics, you need a primer in air power employment

In any case what sort of conventional conflict is the army thinking of and against who?

The Gall

Watched with interest Arnab Goswami interview Anna Hazare between 2030 and 2100 hrs last night. It was gratifying to see that the septuagenarian did not falter even once during the grilling at the hands of this seasoned anchor. Arnab did not spare a chance to trip the simple man. He was worse than the BBC's Hard Talk veteran Tim Sebastian in so far as his tone, tenor and language, bordering on the impudent, carefully adding "Ji" to Anna but smiling all the same when he thought he had asked a difficult question. Wonder if Arnab will ever treat a ruling party member or a minister with such tone that bordered on rudeness and I say this after having watched him question Mr Pranab Mukherji who is usually quite short tempered.

Sir, Please dont insult our intelligence

The government and its agencies continue to be completely clueless about the likely perpetrators of the Delhi High Court bomb blast. It is clear that terrorists are becoming more and more emboldened with every strike that goes unpunished or unsolved.

We are told the investigative agencies are working round the clock. If only those charged with preventing terror had worked round the clock, the attack would not have taken place in the first place. We need to send some police officers and ministers to the UK and the US to learn how both have managed to keep their respective countries terror free over some five/ten years.

Unless those in authority lose sleep over this problem, terrorism will not be stopped.

We are masters at closing the barn doors after the horses have bolted.

Strangely, all those waxing eloquent against the civil society during the recent JLPB agitation are strangely tongue tied. Not a whimper, no condemnation, no ideas, no advice, no sloganeering, no pledges!!! Sad Sad Sad no?

Delhi Blast

Another bomb blast; this time outside the High Court. HUJI has allegedly taken responsibility and threatened more such blasts if a certain man convicted in the December, 13, 2001 Parliament Terror Attack is not released. Whatever the truth but one thing is clear: India cannot afford to inordinately delay important decisions nor can it make vague excuses of our Democratic and judicial system being responsible for the same.

While investigations and court trials take time our leadership must not delay their decisions hoping to derive some political or other benefit.

People will demand and get a bigger contingent of police outside the High Courts; tomorrow it will be District Courts. How many policemen can we spare?

As I have repeatedly said "terror must be stopped at the gates", and homegrown terror has to be fought on a daily basis and not when a blast takes place. Investigation and deterrent punishment are of course very important but prevention is far more so. if it means that more and more people/organizations/groups have to be brought under close surveillance then it cannot be avoided.

Unless the people in charge of security take their duties more seriously we cannot defeat terror.

Finally, if the government is squeamish about enforcing law, it might as well abolish death penalty and accept the consequences.

Today we a great big country with big aspirations are looking like 'pushovers', something the law minister said last week that we are not.

Not a Pushover

According to TOI of 01 Sep, 2011, Shri Salman Khurshid has said that the government might have lost some ground but would soon regain it. "We are not pushovers". Commendable if it means that the GOI has taken the Civil Society challenge seriously and will curb/eliminate corruption.

In many other areas including national security, GOI appears to be a 'pushover' as it invariably avoids retaliatory action. Does not even declare its intention to discipline the offender.

While I am not suggesting that India should resort to use of military force at the slightest provocation/threat, there is an urgent need to at least warn the habitual offenders.

Error of Judgment

Salman Khurshid the Min of Law, himself a SC lawyer, has admitted to the government making an error of judgment in dealing with the civil society.

This sounds insincere as errors of judgment are usually made when judgment is exercised, which in this case no one did. Everyone was blaming everybody else; no one took responsibility. The PM was conspicuous by his absence in the first week.

This GOM or collegiate type of decision making can be problematic. In the past the PM stood up and took responsibility and handled a crisis with the help of his or her advisors and not vice versa.

Considering that the PM has declared mending relations with Pakistan as a major objective of his political career should he not add mending relations with his own people as an equally important goal?

In today's Indian Express, Jerry Rao has reminded the PM about how many of his predecessors had signed agreements with non-politicians. Rajiv-Longowal Acord, Rajiv-AASU Accord, Indira Gandhi-Sheikh Abdulla Accord etc. Worth a read for the PM.

It would be interesting to see how the Chairman of the Parliamentary Standing Committee Manu Singhvi, also a SC lawyer, now handles the hot potato of the JLPB. Many of his party colleagues are unlikely to accept Anna's suggestions with grace.

Its cool to be honest

Pompous, sanctimonious, supercilious and condescending are not adequate adjectives to describe these pseudo-intellectuals who are even now questioning the sincerity of Anna's overall objective of ridding our society of corruption. people are fully aware that one bill alone cannot do that and hence will continue to remain vigilant. We do not need sermons from you. Be honest for once, and accept that the average Indian is beginning to change. As Chetan Bhagat has said, its cool to be honest. What a simple yet profound statement!!

A Half Victory but a Total Defeat?

All those who doubted Anna's credentials and disapproved of his methods have been proved wrong even if his followers have not won a full victory. All those who stubbornly ignored and later opposed the demands of the people by disingenuously calling them 'middle class exclusive urbanites' who did not represent the larger majority of the Indian citizenry and were in fact marginalizing the Dalits, minorities and the other depressed classes; an absolutely preposterous charge. These doubts and allegations were made/aised by those who believed that their brand of voe bank politics was supreme and could not be challenged ever.

Today, some editors are quoting critics and defendents alike to make the same point that even if the movement succeeded its demands that parliament pass what the civil society had wanted, was essentially undemocratic. I have great respect for Sharad Yadav and Om Puri. Shekhar Gupta in today's Indian Express cites Om Puri as calling the MPs Ganwars and gives Sharad Yadav's example as being a representative of the rustic classes. Gupta's argument is totally disingenuous. Sharad Yadav is not the right example as he is experienced, educated and wise and witty but what the civil society was objecting to were theMPs who got themselves elected on the promise of working for the depressed classes but in fact lined their own purse and wantonly robbed the country. Both the urban and rural backward types quickly learned the ropes and became wealthy and arrogant beyond belief. So Mr Gupta, please do not try to defend them. As I have asked before, "What if instead of 151 all 543 members of the LS have a record of serious criminal offenses?" Will Mr Gupta still defend them as being the supreme representatives of the supreme parliament. Mr Gupta, you have rightly recalled all that is wrong with vote bank politics and the attendant corruption. Why then this opposition to the people fighting for their rights as a last resort? Surely, had the ruling class been half as sensitive and honest the civil society would never have succeeded.